The Rollback of China's One-Child Policy

During my sophomore year in Mr. Carragher's Perspectives on Modern World History class, I researched and wrote a paper titled Mao: A Leap Forward for Women? In this paper, I examined whether Mao Tse-Tung advanced women's roles by working to dismantle China's traditional patriarchal values that started during the Zhou Dynasty (1046–256 BCE). This research also introduced me to China's One-Child Policy and its societal impact. 

The Cultural Revolution under Mao saw China undergo many shifts that would forever impact the country's future. Mao was a staunch proponent of population growth, and he encouraged large families and outlawed abortion and the use of contraception so that women could produce offspring, which would help boost the workforce and strengthen China's power on the world stage. His push for population expansion doubled China's population over thirty years, growing from around 500 million in 1949 to nearly a billion by 1976.

The rapid growth created concerns about food security, unemployment, housing shortages, and overall economic stability. When Deng Xiaoping became the leader of China in 1978, he instituted the One-Child Policy, which limited families to one child each. This policy was created to curb population growth, which increased under Mao's rule. This policy remained in effect from 1979 to 2015. The intent of this policy is to redirect resources toward industrialization, infrastructure, and education. During the One-Child Policy, women were heavily mistreated, and some were even sterilized without their consent. This policy affected women not only emotionally but also physically. For most families, boys were favored over girls. The favoring of boys is tied to the patriarchy and Confucian values that are embedded in Chinese society. During this period, only 100 girls were born for every 118 boys, with female infanticide and sex-selective abortions being common.

A 1980s-era poster in China reads: "To rejuvenate the nation, control the population growth." David Pollack/Corbis/Getty Images. This is an interesting propaganda image featuring a girl instead of a boy. Was the Chinese government aiming to counteract the cultural bias toward male offspring?

One-Child Policy led to a significant fall in the total fertility rate from an estimated 5.9 births per woman in 1970 to 2.9 births per woman in 1979. It continued to fall by the late 1990s, with the total fertility rate between 1.5 and 1.7, and it has remained at this level since. This shift reveals the long-term social and economic impact of restrictive population policies. It highlights the challenges China now faces in balancing a stable workforce with the needs of an aging society.

Fang, thirty years old, featured in a story run by CNN, was born in 1990 when China's One-Child Policy was at its strictest. Her mother became "illegally" pregnant a year after she was born, forcing the family to take drastic steps to avoid punishment. Fang was sent to live with extended family members while her mother pretended the second pregnancy was her first. Fang, now married, does not want to have children, stating, "All the fears...felt throughout my childhood, played a part in [her] current call." The choice to disguise her mother's second pregnancy as the first not only exemplifies the fear and desperation that families felt under the one-child rule but also suggests a hidden emotional toll on individuals like Fang, who grew up distanced from her immediate family and bound to a false narrative of her own identity. Fang's choice not to have children may be a response to the trauma she and her family endured because of the One-Child Policy.

Although the aging population has increased worldwide, such as in neighboring countries like Japan, the One-Child Policy has accelerated the process in China. In China, the only-child dynamic is known as the 4:2:1 effect, which describes families where each couple cares for their four older parents and one child. During the 2024 US campaign, a similar issue was addressed by both parties, using the term "sandwich generation," referring to those caring for both aging parents and their young children. Both candidates proposed policies to support caregiving and eldercare to lessen the burden faced by this group. The US faces challenges similar to China, illustrating that these pressures are widespread across different societies.

In 2015, China faced a rapidly growing aging population, which strained social services and the economy, and a declining birth rate, which later led to a shortage of young workers. So, China reversed its course and introduced the 2-child Policy in 2015. The introduction of the 2-child Policy was gradual, fearing that there would be a birth rate boom, but by May 2015, only 1.45 million (13.2%) of 11 million eligible couples applied for permission to have a second child. The couples who applied were of a higher income bracket and whose first child is likely a girl, now desiring to have a boy. By October 2015, China announced a universal Two-Child Policy. After the reform, China saw a short-lived boost in the fertility rate in 2016. Chinese women gave birth to 17.9 million babies in 2016, but the number of births declined by 3.5% to 17.2 million in 2017 and 15.2 million in 2018. In 2021, under President Xi Jinping's rule, China changed the policy again to allow couples up to three children. This shift was made due to the continued low fertility rate (1.3 children/woman in 2020, below the replacement rate of 2.1), and China's shrinking labor pool stands to hamper the country's economic growth potential, particularly in labor-intensive sectors like manufacturing. The continued low fertility rate may be attributed to the economic cause of raising children in China, and many young people like Fang, who grew up under strict family size limits, may see smaller families as a norm. And as China developed, career aspirations may have led many young people to prioritize their career and personal goals over raising a large family.

Data from United Nations Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Despite policies encouraging birth rates, continued low fertility rates and an aging population pose significant risks to China's economic growth and its place in the global economy. It could reduce the production of goods and services coming out of China and disrupt the global supply chain, as most countries depend on Chinese goods and services. If China's manufacturing industry faces labor shortages, it could drive up the costs of goods and services coming out of China. And with President-elect Trump's plan to continue imposing tariffs on Chinese goods, American consumers will face higher costs in buying essential goods. They could, in turn, add financial strain on American families.

The economic implications of China's low birth rate and aging population are only part of the issue. The social and human costs are just as important. I understand why China's leaders sought to limit population growth, but how the policy was enforced, from forced sterilizations and sex-selective abortions, goes against fundamental human rights and feels intrusive and deeply unfair to women. I wouldn't want anyone, much less the government dictating me how many children I could have. Women should have complete control over their bodies and family planning choices, free from any interference. 

Japan also faces challenges similar to those faced by China, but to counteract these issues, Japan has gradually opened its doors to let in foreign workers to address labor shortages. Given China's ambition to maintain its status as a global superpower, will it also consider letting in more foreign nationals by easing policies that regulate the employment of foreigners within its borders? I think there are still challenges that these workers face because of China's strict regulations and government control, and this may discourage foreign workers from staying long-term.

Sources

Das Gupta, Monica. "Family Systems, Political Systems, and Asia’s ‘Missing Girls’: The Construction of Son Preference and Its Unraveling." National Center for Biotechnology Information, 2018, https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC5944611/.

Gan, Nectar, et al. "China's One-Child Policy Hangover." CNN, 18 Aug. 2024, https://www.cnn.com/2024/08/18/china/china-one-child-policy-hangover-intl-hnk/index.html.

"China’s Population Falls by 2 Million as Births Drop for Seventh Straight Year, Deaths Jump After COVID." AP News, 11 Jan. 2023, https://apnews.com/article/china-population-births-deaths-covid-b0ec148b3f8db6b2863aeca02078bd7a.

China Briefing. "China’s Three-Child Policy: What It Means for the Economy." China Briefing, Dezan Shira & Associates, 2023, https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-three-child-policy-what-it-means-for-the-economy/.

Hsieh, Emma. "Mao: A Leap Forward for Women?" Perspectives on Modern World History, 10 May 2023. Research paper.

"Key Facts about China’s Declining Population." Pew Research Center, 5 Dec. 2022, https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2022/12/05/key-facts-about-chinas-declining-population/.

Zhou, Li. "How China Went from Overpopulation Scare to a Demographic Crisis." Vox, 24 Jan. 2023, https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/23558772/china-population-overpopulation-one-child-policy-demographics-aging-beijing-xi-jinping.